As of Today
- Your current FTP is between 190 and 194 depending on calculation method. Zwift = 193, we can use that.
- Your 2017 hours per week have slowly been rising to a current of approximately 5-6 hours a week.
Without consistent repeated FTP tests we can estimate your progress based on power distrobution. Generally your FTP improvement seems to be around the 10-15% mark in 6 months but that is a rough estimate based on mean/max power distrobution and looking at specific rides.
Here is a chart
I am sure you would love to see more improvement over the next 6 months. A 20% improvement in FTP by July 2018 would be 230 watt FTP and seems possible with more consistent structured training. 230 watts with .5% grade puts you at 66 minute time.
I believe you ride a little better outside so here is our dream. 250 watt FTP on absolutely flat course and get under 60 minutes.
This would likely require perfect training and some good luck. We will see how it goes but < 60 minutes might be easier to hit in 2019.
Next Steps – FTP Tests and Periodization
Start taking monthly FTP tests in consistent way. I suggest the Zwift FTP Test. First get well rested, 2 days of Z1 only or days off. Or 1 day z1, 1 day off for example. Just make it consistent from month to month and make sure you are rested. We must know what training is working.
Basically all good coaches recommend periodization. The most simple 3 step version is base > build > intensity (or race specific). Since we are short on time, let’s say each phase is 3 months long and we will assume what you have done to date is the base phase. Traditionally we would now go to the build phase where you increase your volume.
Three Inital Questions
- Do you want to go the traditional route and raise from your current 5-6 up to 10-12 hours per week? If so we want to slowly increase up to 10% more hours per week.
- I know your goal is a podium in July. Do you know what that means regarding TT 40km time for your age group?
- Do we know the track specifics? Elevation, time of day to estimate temp. Bike weight, Aerobars? It’s better to have a goal we truely belive we can achieve and see consistent progress towards achieving it.
For achieving your maximum here are a few initial core concepts
- Consistency is one of the most important factors. Planned down weeks are fine but need to be careful with them.
- It’s much better to be slightly undertrained then slightly overtrained.